Mono Lake Newsletter

Lakewatch

Don't worry about the weather, just keep conserving water

by Greg Reis

I think that last year's El Niño spoiled us. This past fall, everyone was asking what kind of winter it would be--expecting an accurate prediction. Unfortunately, El Niños as strong as last year's are rare; therefore rarely can such accurate long-term climate predictions be made.

There is, however, a climate pattern associated with the moderate (strong as of 3/99) La Niña we are currently experiencing. La Niña is a term that refers to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. During this type of event, rainfall is generally below normal in the southern US and in California--especially Southern California. On the other hand, the Pacific Northwest is generally wetter than normal, and precipitation in the normal range falls somewhere in between the two regions. What does this mean for Mono Lake which lies in that middle zone? Well, maybe a dryer than average winter--or maybe not (see Spring 1999 Newsletter for how it turned out).

Thanks to the past four wet winters, Mono Lake has risen nearly ten vertical feet. At November 1998's 6,384.2 feet, it is well on its way to taking less than the average time predicted for rising to 6,391 feet above sea level. The streams have been full, and floods have brought new life into riparian areas. DWP's diversions have remained low enough that each year Grant Lake Reservoir has spilled, giving Rush Creek higher flows--more like the natural flow pattern and just what the stream needs to restore itself.

Larger inflows to the lake have caused salinity to drop, alkali fly habitat to increase, the Negit Islets to be protected from predators, dust storms to decrease, lake-fringing lagoons to increase, and the walk to the lake to shorten. In short, we've got a little breathing room.

Droughts are an expected natural occurrence, but we are dealing with an ecosystem stressed from artificial drought, and the natural resilience of the lake and streams has been reduced. A ten-year drought now would have much more serious consequences than it would have had back in 1940. We have a small buffer for drought, but that buffer will grow as Mono Lake approaches 6,392.

Thanks to the hard work of the Mono Lake Committee and others over the last 20 years, we have the luxury of not having to dread dry years as much. California and Mono Lake are more drought resistant than they were 20 years ago. Thanks to the Water Board decision, there are strict rules in place that will raise Mono Lake to 6,391--in spite of a drought or two along the way. And in another 20 years, if we stay vigilant and continue to work as hard as before, we will continue to have this luxury: the luxury to say, "Don't worry about the weather, just keep conserving water."

Note: this article was updated from its print form for the World Wide Web on 3/2/99. The original article was written in November 1998.

Return to Winter 1999 Newsletter

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Last Updated January 07, 2007